The Prospects for Third Party and Independent Candidates this November: A Contrarian View from Darcy Richardson (TPID Exclusive)

In preparation for an article at CAIVN on the tea party movement and the future prospects of third party and independent candidates for office, I contacted Darcy Richardson to see if he would be interested in offering a comment for quotation. As his response went well beyond anything that could be included in that article – touching upon everything from the Florida Tea Party, to prominent independent gubernatorial campaigns, to third party strategy and beyond – I asked him if I could publish it here and he obliged. The question and response follow with minor edits.

A number of independents seem well positioned to win state office this November (ex. Crist, Chafee etc.), in comparison, what do you think the prospects of third party or independent candidates are for Congressional races, for example, the Florida Whig Party? Also, do you think this portends well for future third party or independent presidential candidates?

While I think Charlie Crist will emerge victorious in November, I'm somewhat of a contrarian when it comes to other third-party and independent candidates across the country this autumn. Our politics are entirely too polarized. By and large, the rank-and-file membership of both parties have dug in their heels — a phenomenon that began during the Bush Presidency — and neither are willing to vote for an independent or third-party candidate for fear of enabling the other side to win.

It's really sad, but that's the reality. Moreover, it's a trend that I fully expect to continue in the 2012 presidential election — and possibly beyond.

Except for the handful of well-known Democrats or Republicans who are mounting independent campaigns this fall — Cahill in Massachusetts, Chafee in Rhode Island and a few others — I don't expect this to be a particularly banner year for independents and third parties.

Regrettably, the nationally-organized third parties have pretty much missed the boat when it comes to the one issue that could have made a huge difference this year — the economy. They've all but allowed the Democrats and Republicans — the two parties responsible for this economic catastrophe — to define the issue.

Except for a handful of third-party hopefuls, such as Rich Whitney in Illinois and New York's Howie Hawkins — two of the most thoughtful third-party candidates in the country — few of them have bothered to understand, let alone address, the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression.

Having said that, I'd be surprised if Whitney polls a third of the votes that he received in 2006. There were some really unique and extraordinary circumstances in that race, so I think it'll be pretty difficult for him to duplicate that amazing feat, as much as I would like to see him do so.

This is a pocketbook election if there ever was one, but precious few candidates running outside the traditional parties are making it the focal point of their campaigns. Incredibly, many of the minor-party candidates running this year aren't even making it part of their narrative. To look at some of their campaign web sites, one wouldn't even know that we're in a prolonged recession. (There are communities sprinkled throughout the country that are beginning to resemble the Great Depression, many where unemployment hovers around twenty percent or greater, but virtually none of the independent or minor-party candidates are talking about that.)

I suppose this is one of the reasons I'm not quite as critical of the Tea Party Movement as some others on the Left. I sort of agree with Noam Chomsky, who believes that it might be a terrible mistake to harshly criticize the nascent movement. Sure, they've attracted more than their share of crazies, but their anger and frustration is the symptom of something much deeper — namely, an economy in decline that threatens the well-being of the nation's middle-class.

The Left, by and large, doesn't see that. It's easier to criticize than analyze.

Insofar as the Tea Party of Florida is concerned, I think Randy Wilkinson — a veteran campaigner with decent name recognition in his district — could possibly score double-digits in his congressional race while I expect Peg Dunmire, a pretty hard-working candidate, to have an impact in Orlando's eighth congressional district, possibly enough to be Alan Grayson's saving grace in what undoubtedly will be a close, hard-fought contest. The party's best showings, however, might take place in some of the state legislative races, where the Tea Party could end up with as many as twenty-five candidates.

If it can successfully exploit the Scott Rothstein scandal — and just how deeply it extends to both major parties — the Tea Party of Florida could exceed beyond anyone's wildest expectations on November 2.

Thanks Darcy!